20th-ranked Sun Devils set sights on Beavers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/08/2009 - Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 20th-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils return to the friendly confines of Wells Fargo Arena this evening, as they welcome the Oregon State Beavers to Tempe for a Pac-10 tussle.

Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and are 21-5 at Wells Fargo Arena over the past two campaigns. The team however, is coming off a split of its first two conference matchups, whipping Stanford on the road last Thursday (90-60), before falling to California in Berkeley last weekend (81-71). The loss was just the second this year for ASU, which had a eight- game win streak come to a close.

The Beavers opened the 2008-09 season with four straight losses, but since then, the team has won six of its last eight games to pull even at 6-6. OSU also opened league play a week ago and like the Sun Devils, split a pair of games, losing at UCLA (69-46), before salvaging the trip to Los Angeles two days later with a 62-58 overtime victory at USC. The victory snapped a dreadful 21-game losing streak in regular season Pac-10 play for the Beavers.

The Beavers lead the series with the Sun Devils by a count of 38-33, but it was ASU which swept the season series a year ago.

The Beavers have turned things around this year thanks to solid play at the defensive end of the floor. OSU is allowing just 61.6 ppg this year, as foes are shooting just .425 from the floor. Offensively, the team is generating a rather low average of 62.6 ppg, but the Beavers take full advantage of each trip up and down the floor, hitting on a solid .488 from the field. The team does have one of the conference's top offensive threats in Calvin Haynes, who is delivering on 58.5 percent of his shots, leading the team with nearly 18 points per outing (17.8). Omari Johnson ranks second in scoring at 10.9 ppg and leads the team with 5.7 rpg. The Beavers once again shot the ball very well (especially in the second half) in their win over USC, as the team converted 50 percent from the floor overall, and 7-of-15 from behind the arc. Roeland Schaftenaar led the way with 18 points. Haynes was a close second, coming off the bench with 16 points. Johnson finished off the double-digit scorers with 11 points.

The Sun Devils have been highly successful at both ends of the floor this season and are currently enjoying a +16.3 scoring margin. The team is shooting a stellar .510 from the field (nearly 40 percent from three-point range), leading to a healthy 76.1 ppg. The defensive effort has been equally impressive, holding opponents to a tad over 40 percent shooting and a meager 59.8 ppg. Forward James Harden is once again the focal point of the offensive gameplan, as he is shooting .547 from the floor, including a scorching .438 from three-point range. The result is a hefty 23.4 ppg. What makes Harden even more dangerous is his ability to help out on the boards (6.1 rpg), as well as in the passing lanes (second on the team with 64 assists). Jeff Pendergraph is another option in the frontcourt (14.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg), while the sharpshooting Rihards Kuksiks (10.6 ppg, .510 shooting, .527 from behind the arc) and Ty Abbott (10.2 ppg) add perimeter balance. The Sun Devils fell victim to a very accurate shooting performance from the hometown Golden Bears last weekend, as Cal connected on 58 percent from the floor, including hitting nine three- pointers. The hot shooting spoiled a terrific offensive performance from Harden, who poured in 26 points. Kuksiks and Pendergraph were productive as well, adding 16 points apiece. However, the rest of the team combined for a mere 13 total points in the loss.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.