Ambrose holds off Busch to defend Watkins Glen title

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/08/2009 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcos Ambrose made a bold move on Kyle Busch for the lead and then held off the current points leader on two late- race double-file restarts to win the Zippo 200 at Watkins Glen International for the second year in a row.

Ambrose made his pass on Busch for the lead as the two headed into the chicane with 19 laps to go. Ambrose's maneuver forced Busch to swerve to the left, causing him to miss the entrance into the chicane.

"I knew I had to dive bomb him to try and get past," Ambrose said. "If I would have waited for the last 10 laps, he was going to do anything he could to block me, so I just tried to surprise him. I surprised myself because I got in there pretty hard."

Ambrose scored his second career Nationwide victory. He won a NASCAR national touring series race for the first time one year ago at Watkins Glen.

Busch fell to third after the incident, but fought off Carl Edwards in the closing laps to finish second. He has now finished first or second for the 10th straight race, surpassing Jack Ingram's 1983 record of consecutive one- two finishes.

During the cool-down at the conclusion of the race, Busch made a slight nudge on Ambrose's car to express his displeasure of the Aussie's move for the lead.

"I think it was a little aggressive going into the bus stop (chicane), but you got to do what you got to do to win," Busch said. "I felt it was a really late move, and if I would have went through there with him, I would have wrecked. So I had to do what I had to do to preserve my car and save myself."

Busch also tied Sam Ard's series record for leading a lap in 19 consecutive races.

Edwards finished third, followed by Kevin Harvick, the pole sitter, and Ron Fellows, a road course ringer.

Busch has now padded his lead to 212 points over Edwards.

Jeff Burton, Greg Biffle, David Ragan, Brad Keselowski and Scott Speed completed the top-10.

Robby Gordon and Joey Logano also had an on-track skirmish late in the race. Gordon leaned into Logano, forcing him to slide off the track and slam into the tire barrier.

As Logano attempted to head back to the pits, the bottom of his car erupted into flames. He quickly exited the car without any injuries.

Several laps before the incident, the two made contact several times before Gordon's front hood was crunched in, eventually causing a tire to blow.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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