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06/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thomas Muller made his international debut for Germany just three months ago, but the 20-year-old is already being compared to the country's most prolific striker. And it's not just because they share the same last name.
Gerd Muller, no relation to Thomas, retired from international soccer 36 years ago after scoring the winning goal in West Germany's 2-1 win over the Netherlands in the 1974 World Cup final.
Gerd's match-winner was the last of his 14 World Cup goals, a record broken by Brazil's Ronaldo in 2006, and he scored an incredible 68 career goals in just 62 international games.
Thomas certainly won't equal that record of averaging more than a goal a game, but through four FIFA World Cup matches in South Africa, Germany's new star has three goals and three assists.
Thomas evoked more comparisons to his namesake when he got the No. 13 jersey for the World Cup, after captain Michael Ballack was ruled out with an injury. Gerd had the same number in the 1970 and 1974 World Cups.
Thomas reminded English fans of the legendary Gerd on Sunday, when he scored a pair of goals and added an assist in a 4-1 win that sent Germany into the last eight.
Gerd scored the match-winner against England in overtime of the 1970 World Cup quarterfinals and Muller scored both of his goals in the second half Sunday.
Thomas became the youngest player to score two goals in a game in the round of 16 or later since Brazil's Pele scored twice in the 1958 World Cup final.
"It's unbelievable to think that he is still only 20 years old," Germany coach Joachim Loew said of his young star.
Thomas made just his third appearance for Germany when he opened the World Cup as a starter, and he rewarded Loew by assisting on the first goal of a 4-1 win over Australia. Muller added his first international goal in the second half.
Then, in a must-win match against Ghana in the last game of group play, Muller assisted on Mesut Ozil's game-winner in the 60th minute of a 1-0 win.
He began his performance against England with another assist to Podolski, then finished two counter attacks in the second half.
On the first goal, Muller played a long outlet to start the break, and Bastian Schweinsteiger later returned the pass for Thomas to convert at the near post.
Minutes later, the phenom made an 80-yard sprint to offer an option for Ozil, then buried his second goal with a relatively easy finish from inside the area.
"Thomas has a lot of quality and is fantastic in front of goal," Loew said.
Germany has filtered a lot of play through Muller, and with the results he can produce, it is easy to understand why. In addition to being deadly in front of goal, he differentiates himself from other strikers with his wing play.
Mature as a player and person, Muller is focused on Saturday's quarterfinal match with Argentina, against whom he debuted in a friendly a few months ago. He knows what he's done so far is irrelevant in respect to the upcoming match, and believes Germany can continue its run in the tournament.
"Everything is possible now. We can beat anyone if we play to the best of our ability," he said. "We are focused on our goal at this tournament and I have left some space in my trophy cabinet at home."
Even if it doesn't include a World Cup winners' medal, it could very well have the tournament's Best Young Player Award in it in a few weeks.
And with a shot at playing in at least two more World Cups, Thomas could stand alongside Gerd as an equal before his career is over.
<< Portugal, Spain clash in round of 16
Cape Town, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portugal escaped the group stage of
the FIFA World Cup without allowing a goal, including a 0-0 tie against Brazil
in the final match of the round.
Portugal was rewarded with a round of 16 match aga
<< Sky Blue FC knocks off Gold Pride
Hayward, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sky Blue FC recorded a surprising 2-0 win over
FC Gold Pride on Sunday in Women's Professional Soccer action at Pioneer
Stadium with second-half goals from Rosana and Tasha Kai.
Rosana put her side up in
<< Oranje slice through Slovakia, into quarterfinals
Durban, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Netherlands won for the fourth
time in as many games at the FIFA World Cup on Monday as it recorded a 2-1
win over Slovakia in a round of 16 match at Moses Mabhida Stadium.
Arjen Robben ope
<< Big names take to tracks for workouts
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Some of the biggest names in thoroughbred
racing took to various racetracks for workouts over the last two days. Many of
the horses are expected to see action during the summer.
Undefeated champion mare Z
Canadiens sign a pair >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens signed forwards Benoit
Pouliot and Tom Pyatt to one-year contracts on Monday.
Pouliot, 23, registered 15 goals and nine assists in 39 games with Montreal
after being acquired from Mi
Osasuna signs Serbia striker Lekic >>
Pamplona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serbia international Dejan Lekic has
completed his transfer from Red Star Belgrade to Osasuna.
The striker moves to Spain for a reported transfer fee of $3.2 million after
impressing Osasuna boss J
Bosh all but gone from Toronto >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With July 1 fast approaching, the much-
anticipated NBA free-agency period is set to begin. The reality, which should
have long been apparent for the Toronto Raptors and their fans, is that the
organization
Watson soars 31 places in world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bubba Watson earned his first PGA Tour win
on Sunday at the Travelers Championship and climbed 31 places to No. 45 in the
world rankings.
Ahead of Watson there was little movement among the top 20.
Tige
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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